FINRA TRACE · 11 September 2026 · Source: FINRA
Key Data — 11 September 2026
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– US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.96% (close on 11 September 2026); 2-year yield: 4.63%
– US 30-year yield: 5.36% on September 11, 2026
– YTD 2026 corporate bond trading (through August): $66.9 billion average daily volume, +15.3% Y/Y
– YTD 2026 corporate bond issuance (through August): $1,899.8 billion, +29.8% Y/Y
– US corporate bond market outstanding (Q1 2026): $11.7 trillion, +3.0% Y/Y
– Investment grade corporate yield: 5.53% (spread 0.81%); High yield: 7.22% (spread 2.67%)
– Investment grade OAS: approximately 77 basis points over Treasuries (ICE BofA US Corporate Index)
– Fed rate hike probability for September FOMC: ~90% following hotter-than-expected core CPI
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– US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.96% (close on 11 September 2026); 2-year yield: 4.63%
– US 30-year yield: 5.36% on September 11, 2026
– YTD 2026 corporate bond trading (through August): $66.9 billion average daily volume, +15.3% Y/Y
– YTD 2026 corporate bond issuance (through August): $1,899.8 billion, +29.8% Y/Y
– US corporate bond market outstanding (Q1 2026): $11.7 trillion, +3.0% Y/Y
– Investment grade corporate yield: 5.53% (spread 0.81%); High yield: 7.22% (spread 2.67%)
– Investment grade OAS: approximately 77 basis points over Treasuries (ICE BofA US Corporate Index)
– Fed rate hike probability for September FOMC: ~90% following hotter-than-expected core CPI
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The US corporate bond market navigated a turbulent session on Friday as a ferocious sell-off in government debt propelled benchmark Treasury yields toward the psychologically critical five per cent threshold, yet credit spreads remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bond bears pushed benchmark Treasury yields toward the closely-watched 5% level ahead of US inflation data that stands to determine expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next week. The yield on 10-year notes climbed almost 20 basis points this week to trade just below the psychologically-important level. At around 4.94% on Friday, the yield reached its most elevated since 2023 and approached its highest since 2007.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in July and above forecasts of 0.2%. The annual core inflation rate, however, slowed to a 2021 low of 2.4%. Following the release, the probability of a Fed rate hike next week jumped to around 90%, from roughly 70% beforehand, as the hotter-than-expected monthly core CPI reading bolstered the case for further monetary tightening.
Heavy corporate issuance, resilient US employment data and mounting fiscal concerns have all contributed to the latest sell-off in government bonds. September brings a heavy investment grade supply calendar, though demand appears strong enough to absorb it.
The corporate credit market has demonstrated notable composure throughout this volatility. Investment grade corporates yield 5.53%, of which 4.72% represents the Treasury component and 0.81% the option-adjusted spread — the compensation investors receive for lending to a corporation rather than the US government. Eighty-one basis points a year is what the market charges for the possibility of default, downgrade, illiquidity and every other thing that can go wrong with a company.
Corporate issuance in 2026 is running above $1.5 trillion, driven by AI capital expenditure. The hyperscalers are excellent credits, but the sheer volume of paper is what keeps spreads from tightening further.
Even in the calm credit market, about $1 trillion of bonds are telling a much different story. That is the amount of company bonds trading at spreads that are unusually wide relative to their credit rating. The tally includes about $580 billion of US bonds and almost $400 billion in Europe.
Returns stayed positive despite the volatility. Investment grade corporates returned +0.32% while high yield returned +0.27%. Credit fundamentals for corporate credit remain supported by the resilient US economy, strong balance sheets and manageable debt maturities. While credit spreads are near the tight end of historical averages, they reflect sound fundamentals that will persist in 2026.
The US Treasury Department’s first expanded buyback operation resulted in weaker-than-expected purchases. The US government repurchased $5.2 billion worth of bonds, below the $6 billion cap and roughly half of the $10.5 billion offered in the operation. The disappointing take-up raised fresh doubts over whether official intervention can durably suppress long-end borrowing costs.
Looking ahead, market participants remain focused on next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision, where the balance of probabilities now points toward a quarter-point increase in the federal funds rate. The Fed is expected to remain patient, viewing in-line PCE and flat real spending as consistent with a cautious approach, though the hawkish rhetoric raises the risk profile heading into next month’s meeting. For corporate credit investors, the message is clear: all-in yields remain attractive, but selectivity is paramount as the cost of missteps rises alongside government borrowing costs.
The US corporate bond market navigated a turbulent session on Friday as a ferocious sell-off in government debt propelled benchmark Treasury yields toward the psychologically critical five per cent threshold, yet credit spreads remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bond bears pushed benchmark Treasury yields toward the closely-watched 5% level ahead of US inflation data that stands to determine expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next week. The yield on 10-year notes climbed almost 20 basis points this week to trade just below the psychologically-important level. At around 4.94% on Friday, the yield reached its most elevated since 2023 and approached its highest since 2007.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in July and above forecasts of 0.2%. The annual core inflation rate, however, slowed to a 2021 low of 2.4%. Following the release, the probability of a Fed rate hike next week jumped to around 90%, from roughly 70% beforehand, as the hotter-than-expected monthly core CPI reading bolstered the case for further monetary tightening.
Heavy corporate issuance, resilient US employment data and mounting fiscal concerns have all contributed to the latest sell-off in government bonds. September brings a heavy investment grade supply calendar, though demand appears strong enough to absorb it.
The corporate credit market has demonstrated notable composure throughout this volatility. Investment grade corporates yield 5.53%, of which 4.72% represents the Treasury component and 0.81% the option-adjusted spread — the compensation investors receive for lending to a corporation rather than the US government. Eighty-one basis points a year is what the market charges for the possibility of default, downgrade, illiquidity and every other thing that can go wrong with a company.
Corporate issuance in 2026 is running above $1.5 trillion, driven by AI capital expenditure. The hyperscalers are excellent credits, but the sheer volume of paper is what keeps spreads from tightening further.
Even in the calm credit market, about $1 trillion of bonds are telling a much different story. That is the amount of company bonds trading at spreads that are unusually wide relative to their credit rating. The tally includes about $580 billion of US bonds and almost $400 billion in Europe.
Returns stayed positive despite the volatility. Investment grade corporates returned +0.32% while high yield returned +0.27%. Credit fundamentals for corporate credit remain supported by the resilient US economy, strong balance sheets and manageable debt maturities. While credit spreads are near the tight end of historical averages, they reflect sound fundamentals that will persist in 2026.
The US Treasury Department’s first expanded buyback operation resulted in weaker-than-expected purchases. The US government repurchased $5.2 billion worth of bonds, below the $6 billion cap and roughly half of the $10.5 billion offered in the operation. The disappointing take-up raised fresh doubts over whether official intervention can durably suppress long-end borrowing costs.
Looking ahead, market participants remain focused on next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision, where the balance of probabilities now points toward a quarter-point increase in the federal funds rate. The Fed is expected to remain patient, viewing in-line PCE and flat real spending as consistent with a cautious approach, though the hawkish rhetoric raises the risk profile heading into next month’s meeting. For corporate credit investors, the message is clear: all-in yields remain attractive, but selectivity is paramount as the cost of missteps rises alongside government borrowing costs.
Data sourced from FINRA TRACE via public market activity reports. For non-commercial informational use only.