FINRA TRACE · 27 September 2026 · Source: FINRA
Key Data — 27 September 2026
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– US Corporate Bond Trading (YTD through August 2026): $66.9 billion average daily volume, +15.3% year-over-year
– US Corporate Bond Issuance (YTD through August 2026): $1,899.8 billion, +29.8% year-over-year
– US Corporate Bond Outstanding (as of Q2 2026): $12.1 trillion, +4.2% year-over-year
– Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield (as of 24 September 2026): 5.90%, with spread of 0.79% over Treasuries
– High Yield Corporate Bond Yield (as of 24 September 2026): 7.80%, with spread of 2.80%
– 10-Year Treasury yield: above 5.2%; 30-Year Treasury yield: above 5.5%
– Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index weekly return: +0.13%, spreads at 75 bps
– Bloomberg High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index weekly return: -0.28%, spreads at 267 bps
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– US Corporate Bond Trading (YTD through August 2026): $66.9 billion average daily volume, +15.3% year-over-year
– US Corporate Bond Issuance (YTD through August 2026): $1,899.8 billion, +29.8% year-over-year
– US Corporate Bond Outstanding (as of Q2 2026): $12.1 trillion, +4.2% year-over-year
– Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield (as of 24 September 2026): 5.90%, with spread of 0.79% over Treasuries
– High Yield Corporate Bond Yield (as of 24 September 2026): 7.80%, with spread of 2.80%
– 10-Year Treasury yield: above 5.2%; 30-Year Treasury yield: above 5.5%
– Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index weekly return: +0.13%, spreads at 75 bps
– Bloomberg High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index weekly return: -0.28%, spreads at 267 bps
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American credit markets came under renewed pressure on Sunday as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, casting a shadow over what had been a resilient corporate bond market.
Bonds and stocks dropped as Middle East tensions flared following President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, denting some of the optimism that lifted markets late last week. Shorter-maturity Treasuries led losses, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield climbing five basis points to 4.90 per cent, whilst the benchmark 10-year yield advanced four basis points, erasing Friday’s decline.
The moves come amid a broader reassessment of interest rate expectations following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates by 25 basis points earlier in September. With the trend of labour market data remaining firm and inflation elevated, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this month, and the base case now includes up to one additional hike in 2026.
The bond market is on the brink of signalling that a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will start shifting the narrative toward the risk that the US economy stalls out. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Treasuries over two-year notes shrank to as little as 17 basis points last week, the slimmest gap since early 2025, increasing the possibility of a curve inversion.
Despite the volatility in government bonds, corporate credit has demonstrated notable resilience. Corporate bonds have been relatively resilient amid a global government bond selloff, but the strength may not last. Bond market volatility, a measure of uncertainty about the direction of bond yields, is spiking, which historically has foreshadowed trouble for corporate debt.
The primary market has remained robust, with US investment-grade corporate bond issuance hitting roughly $1.68 trillion through August 2026, a 27 per cent jump compared to the same period last year, with full-year forecasts now exceeding $1.9 trillion. Corporate issuance in 2026 is running above $1.5 trillion, driven by AI capital expenditure, with hyperscalers representing excellent credits, though the sheer volume of paper is preventing spreads from tightening further.
The high-yield spread has risen to 2.80 per cent and is climbing, suggesting investors see more risk in high-yield debt, though at the 24th percentile it remains low compared with the past decade. Credit fundamentals remain sound, with rating agencies reporting a favourable ratio of upgrades to downgrades, yet the combination of elevated sovereign borrowing and surging hyperscaler issuance is intensifying competition for capital.
Looking ahead, forecasters project the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 per cent for year-end 2026 and 4.50 per cent for year-end 2027, with modest curve steepening anticipated in 2027. For credit investors, the environment demands careful navigation: whilst all-in yields remain at decade highs, tight spreads leave little margin for error should the economic outlook deteriorate materially.
American credit markets came under renewed pressure on Sunday as Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, casting a shadow over what had been a resilient corporate bond market.
Bonds and stocks dropped as Middle East tensions flared following President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, denting some of the optimism that lifted markets late last week. Shorter-maturity Treasuries led losses, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield climbing five basis points to 4.90 per cent, whilst the benchmark 10-year yield advanced four basis points, erasing Friday’s decline.
The moves come amid a broader reassessment of interest rate expectations following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates by 25 basis points earlier in September. With the trend of labour market data remaining firm and inflation elevated, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this month, and the base case now includes up to one additional hike in 2026.
The bond market is on the brink of signalling that a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will start shifting the narrative toward the risk that the US economy stalls out. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Treasuries over two-year notes shrank to as little as 17 basis points last week, the slimmest gap since early 2025, increasing the possibility of a curve inversion.
Despite the volatility in government bonds, corporate credit has demonstrated notable resilience. Corporate bonds have been relatively resilient amid a global government bond selloff, but the strength may not last. Bond market volatility, a measure of uncertainty about the direction of bond yields, is spiking, which historically has foreshadowed trouble for corporate debt.
The primary market has remained robust, with US investment-grade corporate bond issuance hitting roughly $1.68 trillion through August 2026, a 27 per cent jump compared to the same period last year, with full-year forecasts now exceeding $1.9 trillion. Corporate issuance in 2026 is running above $1.5 trillion, driven by AI capital expenditure, with hyperscalers representing excellent credits, though the sheer volume of paper is preventing spreads from tightening further.
The high-yield spread has risen to 2.80 per cent and is climbing, suggesting investors see more risk in high-yield debt, though at the 24th percentile it remains low compared with the past decade. Credit fundamentals remain sound, with rating agencies reporting a favourable ratio of upgrades to downgrades, yet the combination of elevated sovereign borrowing and surging hyperscaler issuance is intensifying competition for capital.
Looking ahead, forecasters project the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75 per cent for year-end 2026 and 4.50 per cent for year-end 2027, with modest curve steepening anticipated in 2027. For credit investors, the environment demands careful navigation: whilst all-in yields remain at decade highs, tight spreads leave little margin for error should the economic outlook deteriorate materially.
Data sourced from FINRA TRACE via public market activity reports. For non-commercial informational use only.